Tesla's "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) — despite the "Supervised" suffix — has improved rapidly in recent years. A leading Wall Street analyst now claims that the system has effectively reached SAE Level 4. This means the vehicle can drive fully autonomously under certain conditions without requiring human intervention.
The Analyst's Claim
The unnamed analyst bases his statement on internal data and public test drives. He argues that Tesla's neural network now handles complex traffic situations more safely than the average driver. Tesla FSD in Europe: No EU Approval Mandatory Yet shows that legal recognition is still pending.
What Does Level 4 Mean?
The SAE definition distinguishes six levels:
- Level 0: No automation
- Level 1–2: Driver assistance (steering or braking support)
- Level 3: Conditional automation (driver must be able to take over)
- Level 4: High automation (vehicle drives autonomously in defined areas)
- Level 5: Full automation (everywhere, anytime)
Hardware Comparison: HW3 vs. HW4
Reactions and Skepticism
Critics point out that true Level 4 systems like Waymo operate in geofenced areas and require no driver. Tesla's approach — gradual improvement with human supervision — is fundamentally different. Tesla FSD Supervised UK: Timeline, RDW Approval, and VCA Process Explained highlights the regulatory hurdles.
Nevertheless, the accident statistics speak for themselves. In the Netherlands, FSD caused 3.5 times fewer accidents than human drivers (First Tesla Data on FSD Supervised in Netherlands Shows Safety Improvement – System Approved in Denmark).
Outlook
Tesla is working on introducing robotaxis without steering wheels or pedals. Elon Musk announced a launch by 2025. Whether FSD then officially reaches Level 4 will also depend on approvals in the US and Europe.