There has been a debate for some time about whether Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) has "effectively" achieved Level 4 autonomous driving or remains a Level 2 driver assistance system. Yesterday, I shared a reader's comment explaining that it is actually Level 2++. This article highlights Elon Musk's missed promises over the years.
The Chronology of Promises
Since 2016, Elon Musk has repeatedly claimed that Tesla vehicles would be able to drive fully autonomously from coast to coast. At that time, he promised this would be possible as early as 2017. But reality looks different:
- 2016: Musk announces that all Tesla vehicles have the hardware for full autonomous driving.
- 2017: A timed prediction for an autonomous drive from New York to Los Angeles.
- 2019: Musk says that by the end of 2020, one million robotaxis will be on the roads.
- 2021: Musk again promises full autonomy "within the year."
- 2022: FSD Beta is expanded to 400,000 vehicles, but Level 4 remains out of reach.
Current Technical Status
Tesla FSD Supervised is still a Level 2 system requiring the driver's full attention. While capabilities in the US are impressive – especially with V14 software and HW4 – deployment in Europe is limited to a few countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany. The UNECE regulations currently do not permit Level 3 or higher without detailed approval procedures.
Comparison USA vs. Europe
The table shows the clear differences between the markets. While Tesla in the US is close to Level 4, progress in Europe is hampered by regulatory hurdles.
Why Musk's Promises Matter
Musk's repeated announcements have fueled expectations that were not fulfilled. Tesla's Robotaxis: A Complete Catastrophe? discusses the consequences for the robotaxi business. At the same time, analysts like those on Wall Street show that the technology is making substantial progress.
Another important point: The hardware differences between HW3 and HW4 can affect performance, but not the fundamental level of autonomy.
Conclusion
Elon Musk has repeatedly missed goals for Full Self-Driving that seem utopian in hindsight. Nevertheless, Tesla has developed the best series-production driver assistance system. The question remains when – and if – Tesla will achieve the long-awaited Level 4.