A new MIT study reveals that Waymo's robotaxis in San Francisco are empty for nearly 44 percent of their driven miles. This contradicts the hope that autonomous vehicles would relieve traffic. Instead, they behave similarly to ride-hailing services.
Empty trips dominate
The analysis from August 2023 to December 2025 covers 13.8 million trips totaling 86.3 million miles. Initially, only 36 percent of miles had passengers; later the figure rose to about 56 percent and then stagnated. That means about 44 percent of all kilometers are driven without users.[NOTE] > The study shows that robotaxis are hardly more efficient than Uber or Lyft – despite billions in investments.
Two types of empty trips
There are two types of empty trips: those on the way to the next customer, and those that drive around without a destination to cover demand. Both contribute to traffic congestion.Comparison: Waymo vs. Tesla
Outlook
The results could also be relevant for Tesla's planned robotaxis once the service launches. Tesla launches unmanned robotaxis across Austin shows initial steps, but the traffic impact remains unclear. In Europe, signs point to expansion: First EU approval for Tesla FSD in the Netherlands is a milestone, but the traffic effects still need to be examined.[IMPORTANT] > The study challenges the assumption that autonomous vehicles automatically lead to less traffic. Without regulation and ride-pooling, robotaxis could even worsen traffic problems.
The full study was published in the journal Transport Findings and shows that the industry is still far from the promised traffic relief.